The Latest

My all-time record on public bets is 129-107 (54.7%) for +14.67 Units. I document every pick on Twitter and have never deleted a released bet. Detailed results can be found here:

Method

My process involves watching every snap of every NFL game and quantifying each team’s overall effectiveness on each side of the ball. This number, a team’s Effectiveness Rating or Eff. Rating, grounds my analysis, evaluations, and bets. My Eff. Ratings outperform statistical metrics in assessing team performance by:

Focusing on process instead of results.

In the short term, results do not always reflect quality of process. I evaluate teams from the perspective of whether they are likely to sustain success over a large sample size.

Muting the outsized impact of high-variance events.

Every NFL game involves high-leverage situations and unlikely outcomes. Statistics-based models tend to overstate the impact of these outcomes and Eff. Rating measures quality of play holistically.

Contextualizing performance.

Every game situation requires a different approach and involves unique risks and rewards. Eff. Rating evaluates performance relative to those goals, which does not always strictly align with yards or points.

For access to my picks, analysis, and weekly Eff. Ratings, become a Member today:

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