After our best week of the season last week, we stumbled through a disappointing 5-7 week for -1.47 Units. I was right on the money with my biggest play of the week but made several regrettable picks that offset the win. This is my first year going public with my picks, and I’m learning a…Read more
The Situation In the early hours of a football Sunday, London will be treated to another instant classic, this time watching the 1-4 Miami Dolphins take on the 0-5 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins opened up their season with an extremely tough schedule, and looking ahead they can convince themselves that they can still be a…Read more
Rebound week was in full swing this week, as we booked a 7-3 record for +6.44 Units that could have easily been 10-1. We hit on two moneyline underdogs and had several comfortable wins. As I promised last week, I shut out external voices early in the week and focused on what I saw on…Read more
I implement a proprietary analytical framework to beat the NFL betting markets, built on four core principles:
Watch Every Snap.
I watch every snap of every game and quantify each team’s performance by focusing only on predictive elements and filtering out the outsized impact of low-probability events. This helps me establish a team’s Rating for each game that reflects true performance independent of the final score and statistical metrics.
By watching every snap and paying attention to the unique circumstances of each game, I seek to identify the truly causative factors that lead to each game’s outcome and distinguish these factors from the elements that are either overemphasized or incorrectly analyzed by the betting public, analysts, and other sharp bettors.
Understand Every Team.
I view every NFL team as a complex system. Understanding how each system works (and when each system fails) is key to identifying the circumstances under which each team will outperform or underperform expectations. I maintain detailed profiles for every team, identifying success factors and carefully picking the right situations to back or fade each team.
Every single week provides additional data that I aim to objectively incorporate into my analysis, regardless of the specific outcomes of individual bets. I constantly re-evaluate incorrect assumptions and react appropriately to injuries and other developments. I am always learning and seeking ways to improve my methods and understanding.
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