Latest Articles

NFL Picks

My singular goal is to beat the most difficult betting markets: NFL sides and ancillary markets. Nobody can guarantee short-term success, but I believe my process is unparalleled and always improving. I document every bet I place and hope to build on my long-term success. I created this site to demonstrate my analytical process in action, track my bets, and provide tools that enable other bettors to improve, whether betting casually or seeking profit. I currently provide analysis at but will continue to track my bets here.


My process involves watching every snap of every NFL game and quantifying each team’s overall effectiveness on each side of the ball. This number, a team’s Effectiveness Rating, grounds my analysis, evaluations, and bets. My Effectiveness Ratings outperform statistical metrics in assessing team performance by:

Focusing on process instead of results.

In the short term, results do not always reflect quality of process. I evaluate teams from the perspective of whether they are likely to sustain success over a large sample size.

Muting the outsized impact of high-variance events.

Every NFL game involves high-leverage situations and unlikely outcomes. Statistics-based models tend to overstate the impact of these outcomes and Eff. Rating measures quality of play holistically.

Contextualizing performance.

Every game situation requires a different approach and involves unique risks and rewards. Effectiveness Ratings evaluate performance relative to those goals, which does not always strictly align with yards or points.


My all-time record on public bets is 239-208-9 (53.5%) for +26.26 Units. I document every pick on this website and on Twitter and have never deleted a released bet. Detailed results can be found here:


I take pride in my work but nobody can guarantee success betting on sports. I offer advice for entertainment purposes only. If you have a gambling problem, finding winning bets is not the answer. The only answer is to stop gambling. For help, call 1-800-522-4700.